Pakistan Forecasts Below-Normal Rainfall, Above-Normal Temperatures Through September

The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has issued an updated forecast indicating below-normal rainfall and higher-than-normal temperatures across most regions of the country for the period from July to September. This three-month outlook was released on Monday.

Meteorological factors influencing this forecast include the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is currently in a neutral phase and expected to transition into a positive phase. A positive IOD is typically linked with slightly above-normal monsoon rainfall in Pakistan, but its late development may limit its overall impact on the monsoon season. Additionally, sea surface temperatures over the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean are showing a warming trend, pointing to the development of El Niño conditions. These conditions are generally associated with reduced rainfall over Pakistan. Current projections suggest these warming conditions may persist throughout the July–September 2026 period, strengthening as the season progresses.

The PMD's probabilistic rainfall outlook suggests a likelihood of below-normal rainfall in most parts of Pakistan, including Punjab, Sindh, southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Balochistan. Conversely, Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir, and upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are expected to experience normal to slightly above-normal rainfall.

Temperatures are predicted to remain above normal nationwide, with the highest departures expected in northeastern Punjab and eastern Gilgit-Baltistan. Most models predict above-normal temperatures across the country, particularly in Punjab, southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, eastern Balochistan, and western Sindh.

Potential impacts include an increased risk of flash floods and landslides, especially in mountainous and flood-prone northern regions, where near-normal to slightly above-normal precipitation is anticipated. Urban flooding is also possible in the plains of major cities across all four provinces. Above-normal temperatures in Gilgit-Baltistan, upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Kashmir may accelerate snowmelt, leading to increased river inflows, higher streamflow, and a risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs).

Below-normal rainfall in the four provinces could lead to water stress for major Kharif crops such as sugarcane, rice, cotton, and maize, thereby increasing irrigation demand. The report also highlights a heightened risk of vector-borne diseases like dengue, as well as strong winds, dust storms, and hailstorms that could harm seasonal crops, vegetables, and orchards. Farmers are advised to take protective measures for their standing crops.

Intermittent heat stress is likely, particularly in the plain areas of southern Punjab and Sindh. However, normal to slightly above-normal rain in northern high mountain regions is expected to temper heatwave conditions there. The PMD also recommended removing or securely re-installing billboards in urban areas and protecting solar energy structures to mitigate damage from potential windstorm events.

According to Dawn Pakistan, these forecasts are part of the Pakistan Meteorological Department's three-month outlook.