Pakistan Records Back-to-Back Warmest Years Amid Intensifying Global Climate Extremes
Pakistan experienced its hottest year in 2024, followed by its second-warmest year in 65 years in 2025, according to the Economic Survey 2025-26. This trend has intensified extreme floods and poses a systemic risk to the nation’s economy, with northern regions recording their highest annual temperatures in decades. Despite contributing minimally to global emissions, Pakistan bears a significant burden of climate change impacts. Globally, extreme heat has claimed over 200,000 lives in Europe since 2022. The arrival of the El Nino phenomenon is expected to exacerbate weather extremes worldwide, including droughts, disrupted monsoons, and shifting rainfall patterns, with India already anticipating below-average rainfall.
Pakistan recorded its second-warmest year in 65 years in 2025, closely following its hottest year in 2024. This trend, highlighted by the Economic Survey 2025-26, has intensified extreme floods and presents a systemic risk to the nation’s economy. The country's national annual mean temperature in 2025 was 23.9°C, which is 1.09°C warmer than the 22.8-degree average.
Over the past 50 years, Pakistan’s annual mean temperature has increased by approximately 0.5°C, with projections indicating a further rise of 3 to 5 degrees by the end of this century. In 2025, northern regions, including Gilgit-Baltistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Azad Jammu and Kashmir, experienced significant warming, recording their highest annual temperatures in 65 years. Temperature anomalies in these areas reached up to 1.56°C.
Rainfall in Pakistan during 2025 totaled 288.5 millimeters, approximately 3 percent below the long-term average. The distribution was uneven, with Sindh, Punjab, and Gilgit-Baltistan recording above-average rainfall, while Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan remained below average. The monsoon season from July to September recorded 23 percent above-average rainfall, contrasting with significantly below-average rainfall earlier in the year. These shifts are accelerating glacial melt and altering monsoon dynamics, increasing flood risks, as seen in the 2025 floods that affected all provinces, mirroring the devastation of 2022.
The Economic Survey also warned that Pakistan might not meet its United Nations climate commitments due to constrained international financing. The World Bank previously estimated that the country needs $348 billion for baseline climate-resilient investment up to 2030, with an additional $217.7 billion required to meet a total investment of $565.7 billion.
Globally, extreme heat is taking a severe toll on human lives. The World Health Organization (WHO) reported that over 200,000 lives have been lost to heat in Europe since 2022. Hans Henri Kluge, the WHO’s Europe director, noted that Europe is warming faster than any other continent and emphasized the necessity of effective heat-warning systems and a coordinated institutional response to this systemic crisis.
Further compounding these global weather extremes, the El Nino phenomenon has arrived and is expected to intensify through the end of the year, potentially reaching historic strength. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicated a 63 percent chance of a very strong El Nino between November and January. El Nino, a natural climate phenomenon, warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, leading to worldwide changes in winds, rainfall, and erratic weather patterns. Scientists express concern that it will exacerbate the heat of a planet already warming from fossil fuels. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stated that El Nino conditions “will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world.”
The anticipated disruptions are already manifesting regionally, with India expecting below-average rainfall over the next two weeks. This slowdown of the annual monsoon, attributed to “western disturbances,” could delay the planting of summer-sown crops. India's June rainfall was 26.5 percent below normal, and the weather department predicts the monsoon season will bring 90 percent of average rainfall, with June’s rainfall at 92 percent due to El Nino.
According to Dawn Pakistan, these climate challenges persist despite Pakistan contributing less than 1 percent to global emissions.
